Introduction
Satellite imagery is a valuable tool for research about the Earth and its atmosphere, resource management and the day-to-day operation of services on Earth. Yet the latter categories have not developed as fully or rapidly as many analysts originally predicted. Several reasons are examined herein, some relating to national security and other issues that must now be dealt with if full utilization of the opportunity is to be realized.

Commercial Remote Sensing
The sale of images gathered by space-based remote sensing satellites has long been touted as one of the real, near-term "commercial opportunities" space can offer. In 1985, the Center for Space Policy, a Cambridge, Mass. think-tank, forecast gross revenues for remote sensing at $2 billion annually by the year 2000. In mid-1994, Vice President Al Gore predicted that revenue from remote sensing could reach $15 billion by the year 2000. Those figures could prove overly optimistic. However, the Federal Geodetic Data Committee (FGDC) , which has been instrumental in such government initiatives as the National Information Infrastructure, estimates that the U.S. government spends $3 billion nationally and $4 billion internationally on spatial information.
      Yet, in spite of these figures and projections, the total value of the commercial remote sensing market during 1992, including data acquisition, hardware/software, and other components, has been estimated at $850 million.
      This problem generally characterizes the two-fold difficulties that commercial remote sensing has encountered. First, provision problems, specifically difficulty in transferring or providing benefits in terms of private goods in the marketplace, were underestimated. Landsat data, which has been the primary U.S. source, operates on a regional basis and there are only limited markets for regional monitoring projects. Prices were also higher than expected, again in competition with give-away government data. EOSAT quadrupled the price of standard images when it took over the sale of Landsat data in 1985. Further, the Land Remote Sensing Commercialization Act of 1984 (PL 98-365) dictates that exclusive rights to data cannot be given to any one customer, with a consequent decrease in the value from a proprietary stance. Supplying data in a timely fashion has also been difficult, with four to six weeks typical for a data tape after receipt of an order. High resolution data (usually characterized as 5 meters or under) potentially useful for particular commercial or public purposes was often classified, as also being potentially sensitive for military reasons. And finally, there has been substantial foreign competition. The French SPOT system, with 10 meter resolution, has been highly competitive to the U.S. Landsat satellite system, with 30 meter resolution, in the sale of data.
      Second, although the general benefits to society from the use of remotely sensed data are recognized, specific utilization awareness and applications are still developing. In part, this problem relates back to the data availability and cost problems already cited. There were areas of data application and utilization left virtually unexplored because of the scale issue. Remotely sensed images have been used for large-scale agricultural and forestry purposes, like monitoring deforestation or flood plains. However, civil engineering in urban areas, for example, is an often cited area of potential, but ignored until recently because use of high resolution data is requisite. There is little available in the way of benchmark processes for applying remote sensing techniques. Base maps from which to measure change, or changes in repetitive images, are limited at best. The tendency is therefore to go with traditional practices and data measurement techniques which have been standardized over time. Subsequently, market growth has been primarily vertical, e.g., more entities doing the same things. The real potential of commercial remote sensing involves both vertical and horizontal growth, where additional users are finding expanded applications for the data. It is this aspect of the commercial remote-sensing data issue specifically addressed here.

New Opportunities
Recently, the United States government agreed to allow, with restrictions, the commercial sale of imagery from privately owned satellites with spatial resolutions as sharp as 1 meter. This marked a change from previous policy, which had been based on the premise such imagery should be limited to military use even though it might be useful elsewhere. In September 1994 General Charles Horner, then Commander of the U.S. Space Command, explained that technology and the end of the Cold War rendered previous controls on satellite imagery all but obsolete. Speaking on the commercial use of high-resolution satellites Horner said, "The free market is going to take over...If we don't build them in Europe, and we don't build them in the United States, Russia is certainly going to build them."
      With both the permission and advocation of the U.S. government, industry and government agencies have been quick to respond to what they see as an opportunity to, for the first time, take the lead in international commercial space imagery sales. There are great expectations for the commercial remote sensing industry, based on experience with NASA programs indicating a growing demand for higher spatial resolutions of 1 to 5 meters.
      Currently there are three proposed commercial, high-resolution satellite systems: Space Imaging Inc., which is a Lockheed Missiles and Space Corporation (LMSC), and E-Systems collaboration; EarthWatch, which is a wholly owned Ball Aerospace subsidiary formed from the acquisition of WorldView Imaging Corporation's assets; and, Eyeglass Imaging is a partnership between Orbital Sciences, Itek, and GDE Systems.
      Projected growth for site-level geographic information systems (GIS) is encouraging. The GIS data and services market is expected to expand from $2 billion in 1992 to $4 billion in 1996. These figures represent a twofold expansion over four years and a 19 percent compounded annual growth rate. Because the value of remotely sensed data and its related products and services is tied to the GIS market, a comparable increase in the remote sensing market is inferred from these figures. Estimates of the scope and growth of the GIS/remote sensing industry vary, but generally agree that overall sales exceed $5 billion a year with the annual growth rates above 10 percent.
      There's good news and bad news associated with these figures. The bulk of the current GIS business is in aerial photography and existing map data sales. Aerial photographers, who have been doing business with state and local governments, are well entrenched and not likely to easily relinquish their share of the market, particularly in the United States. But the sale of digital satellite data is estimated to be growing at a rate that is equal to or exceeds that of the other segments of the industry. Permitting the commercial sale of high resolution data is a giant step forward dealing with provision problems.

Expanding the Market
In the public sector, the realities of ever-decreasing budgets and ever-increasing demands for service have forced local, state, federal, and international organizations to seek new, more efficient methods to run their day-to-day operations. Many of these organizations are discovering how applications of remotely sensed data in areas such as resource management can bring about substantial savings in operational and personnel costs when compared to traditional methods of data acquisition.
      The potential for increased remotely sensed data use expressed in this quote, and applicable in commercial fields as well, is unfortunately too dependent on integrating new skills and applications of technology into established areas of endeavor and modes of operation. There need to be more bridges between science and application.
      Part of the problem, at least in the case of remote sensing, is that there is a developed technology which has from its inception been highly restricted in use, and now it is being thrust into the marketplace with minimal preparation of the user community. That being the case, there is the very real possibility that those who have experience using remotely sensed data will continue to do so, hopefully to an expanded degree, but to others it will be little more than an interesting novelty...therefore, no horizontal growth.
      Those in fields where the data may be valuable, but unfamiliar, are more often than not too busy meeting near-term deadlines to be introduced to a new technique and learn the requisite skills for use. Standard modes of operation prevail unless there is significant motivation for change. The Air Force view of the utility of space, for example, changed significantly only after the Desert Storm experience. Educating Air Force personnel at institutions like the Space Warfare Center is in response to the newly heightened perception of the usefulness and advantage that space-based imagery offers.
      Lower cost would be an advantage to traditional methods of operation, but until use increases and/or government practices of virtually giving away data for applications purposes abates, even being competitive is difficult for commercial entities. Therefore, a primary aspect of the task at hand is educating users concerning utilization of space based data.
      NASA's programs at John C. Stennis Space Center attempt to address the issue of current user education.
      The lack of understanding concerning the value of remote sensing data to U.S. industry is widespread. Even as sales of remote sensing data are increasing on a yearly basis the largest market for these data is still the U.S. government. NASA's Office of Commercial Programs has addressed this slow commercial growth with several innovative agreement mechanisms and commercial program opportunities.
      These programs attempt to reach those users already active in the business or public sector. Although NASA is to be commended for taking on this arduous task it cannot be viewed as "the answer." As Norm Augustine, CEO of Martin Marietta, pointed out in a December 1994 speech at Air University, the most innovative ideas in industry come from the marketplace, not from engineers and scientists.
      Typically, integration of technology is done incrementally in the workplace until those utilizing the technology enter the field already trained. Such has been the case with computers. Students begin computer training in elementary school and are literate upon entering the work force, as opposed to incremental integration over the past 10 to 15 years. Utilization of remotely sensed data in individual fields of endeavor also requires training prior to entering the work force.
      For example, city planners commonly use traditional techniques for gathering information on sewer lines and other restrictors of urban development, when indeed high resolution remotely sensed data would be more efficient and effective. If the engineers aren't familiar with the concepts and applications though, they are unlikely to use them. Were it an integral part of their professional training, however, the gap would be bridged.
      To cite a specific commercial case, one of the most difficult annual planning functions in the regulated phone industry is the identification of where capital investments are to be made. Critical information is required to do such, including knowledge of the transportation network, and the residential, commercial, industrial, and public buildings in various stages of development. BellSouth, with revenues of over $15 billion in 1992, still uses traditional forecasting to catalog these types of information. GIS is not used to identify these resources, simply because it's never been done that way. NASA is working with BellSouth now, but many other companies are in similar situations.

Integrative Education
The time is now ripe and appropriate for integrating remotely sensed data into wide fields of study at colleges and universities in the United States. With data being declassified at unprecedented rates, there is the possibility of using relatively recent (perhaps two years old) high resolution data in undergraduate and graduate programs such as, but not limited to, civil engineering, chemical engineering, law enforcement and agriculture. Also, the temporal use of satellite information will be absolutely essential in the development of "smart freeways." Use of Global Positioning Satellites (GPS) with GIS will revolutionize highway travel. This is particularly interesting when one considers that the transportation industry generates an estimated 1 trillion dollars annually, with only $80 million in support from the federal tax base. Educating students in a variety of fields, within the standard curriculum, to effectively use remotely sensed data would attack the problem of continual employment of "standard operating practices" at the heart, rather than incrementally.
      Geography departments in some universities already utilize remotely sensed data to a limited degree, as do meteorology departments. But areas like chemical engineering, where data would be valuable in monitoring the effectiveness of chemical treatment of oil spills (e.g. chemicals that "eat" oil spills) and law enforcement (e.g. identification of marijuana fields from space) have been largely untapped. Even those departments already familiar with the use of optical data are relatively unfamiliar with how to effectively utilize radar data for derivation of digital terrain models at 1 meter or less, and radar data is anticipated as the next major field for commercial employment after optical. There is simply a gap between what the technology is capable of doing, and effective employment of those capabilities.
      The military can do a great service in this regard by making declassified images available, free of charge, to educational institutions. Subsequently a process would be required, to include both educators and the military, to decide what data was needed and what could be made available, but the benefits would make such an effort more than worthwhile. The alternative is to let data sit in archives unused, and utilization to be inhibited because people simply aren't aware of the possibilities for utilization.
      If the military were to release data for educational purposes, then the second part of the equation would be to have NASA aggressively begin programs to "educate the educators" on curriculum integration. Some educators may already be aware of the possibilities, but others will need extra support. Efforts are already being made to link education and remote sensing, indeed the Second International Conference on Remote Sensing in Education was held in July 1994 in Wales. NASA has programs aimed at the K-12 level, but the scale is limited. The Aspen Global Change Institute, funded by a three year, $330,000 NASA education grant, is working with more than 1,000 teachers. Extending these efforts provides the path for the horizontal expansion of the remote sensing field.

Conclusion
The ending of the Cold War has created numerous opportunities in ways that could not have been predicted five years ago. Images from spy satellites which were once heavily guarded are now being transformed much like the proverbial swords into plowshares. But without assistance, the transformation will take longer than necessary, and in a haphazard, passive manner. The military and NASA can do a great service to the U.S. commercial and public sectors through the release of data to educational institutions for curriculum purposes. The next step in accomplishing such would be to put forth a proposal creating a multidisciplinary, joint-partner structure to manage the release, availability, access, benchmarking, and feedback of data utility. In doing so an active, effective transition process could commence, with guidance by all relevant players. It would be an exemplary area of acknowledged effort toward transitioning to a new space paradigm.

About the Author:
Dr. Joan Johnson-Freese is an instructor in the Department of National Security Studies at the Air War College, Maxwell Air Force Base, Ala.

Back