3D
Geostatistical Modeling Applied to Radioactive Waste Site
By Ed Rychkun
Hanford Site History
The Hanford site encompasses
560 square miles within the Columbia River Basin in
southeastern Washington. Hanford originally focused on
plutonium production but has now shifted to environmental
restoration and managing wastes generated by past
operations.
At the current time,
Hanford also conducts advanced research and development
for advanced reactors, energy technologies and waste
disposal practices.
Hanford, from 1945 to 1986,
was America's main source of plutonium, during which time
it is estimated that 190,000 cubic meters of highly
radioactive solid waste and 760 billion liters of less
radioactive liquid waste and toxic chemicals were stored,
dumped and poured into the ground. Multiple waste sites,
in the form of trenches, tanks ponds, sand covered pits
and underground storage tanks were used to contain various
forms of hazardous waste, accounting for some 1.4 billion
cubic meters of hazardous materials. Over the years,
numerous leaks have contaminated the groundwater,
migrating southeast towards the Columbia River. From 1955
to 1973, for example, around a million liters of solvent
carbon tetrachloride was pumped into cribs set 80 meters
above the water table. A plume now underlies 18 square
kilometers of the area. Approximately 1170 waste sites,
grouped into 78 operable units in four aggregate areas now
require remediation, all on the National Priorities List,
with estimates for cleanup up to $2 billion.
Site Characteristics
The Hanford site is in flat terrain underlain by a complex
stratigraphy of alluvium and gravel, with granite bedrock.
Topography slopes gradually southwest from 230 to 120
meters adjoining the river. Below surface the water table
gradient slopes gradually in the same direction from
elevations of 140 to 120 meters. This southeast gradient
provides natural drainage into the river, allowing
contaminant plumes to migrate down vertically into the
water table and along gradient towards the river. Numerous
monitoring wells and boreholes have been drilled to sample
the location and extent of the tritium contaminants which
varies from 0 to 700 nano Curies.
Application of 3D Geoscience Technology
A significant problem exists in that the extent of
contamination and the amount of volume to be remediated
dramatically affects the cost of remediation. Further
complicating the process is the distribution and quantity
of sample information which requires interpretive methods
to extrapolate the spatial continuity of the contaminant.
The Lynx modeling
technology was a logical choice to best characterize
subsurface since it is designed specifically to deal with
such spatial problems. It integrates spatial data
management, geostatistical techniques, 3D modeling,
volumetrics, engineering and visualization in one
facility, thereby allowing precise representation and
estimation of complex subsurface problems.
Site Information and Basic Objectives
Information made available for the study included a
topographic map indicating the surface elevations over the
area and a site plan showing the location of major
features such as the river, the boundaries of the plants
and generating stations.
Numerical information was
available in the form of boreholes which indicated the
depth to the water table and the measured mount of tritium
contamination, measured in nano Curies. The basic
objective was to use the existing information to develop a
preliminary site characterization model of the tritium
plume. This would provide a better understanding of the
distribution and location of the contaminant as well as
create a visual representation of the subsurface. In
addition, such characterization could provide an
objective, defensible modeling method that could be used
in optimizing future sampling programs and set the initial
guidelines for remediation planning.
Geostatistical Analysis
Initial analysis was performed on the tritium data using
basic statistics, with the intention of determining data
relationships and spatial behavior. Results indicated
distinct lognormality forcing the need for log
transformations. Upon transformation, the tritium data
exhibited excellent spatial continuity up to 1500 meters,
allowing a spherical semi-variogram model to be used.
Further analysis of anisotropy was performed by selecting
several different directions confirming a similar range of
influence. A secondary, indicator analysis was carried out
with three cut-off values of one, 20, and 80 nano Curies.
Semi-variogram modeling confirmed the spatial continuity
ranges of tritium and the extent of the tritium plume.
Contaminant Modeling
The spherical semi-variogram model was the basis for
Kriging techniques used to estimate the contaminate
distribution throughout the study area. Three dimensional
plumes were generated thereby allowing further inspection
of plume migration, extends and behavior, making it
possible to cut plans and sections at any orientation
though the plume to detail contaminant ranges. By using
enhanced visualization, 3D isosurfaces could be
scrutinized showing the effect of plume limits depending
on the threshold chosen.
Characterization Summary
The use of 3D Geoscience modeling has been used to
effectively characterize the site and to provide the basis
to further planning of remediation and sampling. Although
not performed in this exercise, it is noteworthy that the
development of the model not only facilitates the
quantification of volumes and a measure of the certainty
at any particular threshold or location, but it also
provides the basis for cost effective, defensible sample
planning and control by being able to display areas which
have poor confidences and require additional sampling.
Finally, the development of
a visual 3D model also provides an explicit visual picture
of extent, degree and uncertainty, a vital tool that
facilitates better analysis, understanding and expedient
cleanup.
About the Author:
Ed Rychkun is president of Lynx Geosystems Inc.
in Vancouver, B.C., Canada.
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