Mapping & Interpretations of Extremal-Geographic Processes and Phenomena in Ukraine

By Stepan I. Ishchuck and Alexander V. Gladkey

Introduction
New research trends, covering various activities of man and society, help form the boundaries of modern social geography. Among them, the problems of stable development of regions in economic and social aspects gain increasing importance. There has appeared a need to consider factors that disturb the social system from an equilibrium condition to an extremal regime of functioning. This is one of the basic problems of a comprehensive evaluation of a territory or region is to work out programs of its balanced development.
      One of the methods for attaining these ends is to use general concepts of extremal processes and phenomena in scientific practice. These methods exert influence on social systems as vectorial impulses of destabilization and the disturbance of stable development.

Definitions
Extremal geography deals with modifications in time and space of aspects of such vital societal activities as the crime rate, the distribution of ecological, technogenous and social accidents, and the level of regional conflicts.
      The basic features of unstable extremal systems include the following:
• High rates of realization
• Restriction of propagation in space at the first moment of equilibrium disturbance, spread rapidly throughout the system
• Imminent, systematic sabotage of any control, supervision or registration, and any attempts to settle it on the side of the state
• Continuance in time and the emergence of a peculiar extremal state of system unbalance
• Development of dynamic social chaos
• Circumstances where the social system becomes unstable
• Abrupt decrease in the amount of resources (whether economic, financial, social or administrative) and the potential for escaping an extremal situation
• Violation of social identification of the individual, traditions, stereotypes and behaviors
• Deep degradation of society and loss of social consciousness.
      Crime, accidents (whether natural or ecological) and conflicts (whether technogenous or social) are particular social phenomena that are quite appropriate to the basic features of extremal systems. These are interrelated and also have common tendencies in development, propagation and function. They are the reasons for the formation of extremal-geographical processes and phenomena. Their influence on the vital activity of society is highly complex.
      These elements rely upon their influence of socio-geographical realities, on their level of assimilation within political territories, and on the development of society in economic, technological, and social aspects. Further influence is exerted on the use of natural resources, on the communicability of the environment, and on the systems of control and self-organization. The stability of a social system combines with an unstable one, after which appears either a new social formation or the modification of existing systems into a new regime.
      Combining these vital factors of extremal geography - such as crime, accidents and political conflict - can lead to seriously negative consequences. The comprehensive consideration of all unstable, unbalanced aspects of function and societal development will create the opportunity for solving today's problems and preventing their future occurrence. It will furthermore ensure stabilization of the economic and social spheres within a country.

Regularities and Principles
Extremal geography is based upon general theoretical fundamentals of socio-geographical science. Therefore, within methodological bounds, it rests upon the following factors:
• The principle of the integrity of extremal-geographical processes and phenomena investigations at various hierarchical levels.
     Extremal phenomena are characterized by the presence of destructive influences on the stable development of society. Therefore, consideration for the peculiarities of their formation and function, the study of their structure, their internal and external interrelations, and the complex character of their development can provide the opportunity to predict, prevent and control these processes within the target territory. The realization of this principle requires a combination of general sciences and special methods and techniques, an effective mechanism for their practical use.
• The principle of regionalism.
      This principle provides for the creation of rational, territorial order for all components of a socio-geographical complex, which together forms a definable socio-geographical space. Such a formation is possible only on the condition that the territory's extremal potential is decreased, where lost equilibrium is re-established, where the stable development of society is possible, and where the sensible use of natural resources is practiced. Regionalism is an effective method for determining the level of extremeness in specific territories, and the structure of their extremal potential. A practical implementation of this method is an essential component for society's territorial organization, plus the optimization and the development of particularly addressed programs for stabilizing society's vital activities.
• The principle of complex character and proportional development of society.
     This principle discusses the fact that society is a counterbalanced system, operating as a unified complex wherein all interrelated components cannot exist separately. Hence, society's development must involve all the aforementioned components in common systematic processes (complex development), and with the optimal and counterbalanced coexistence of all elements in a socio-geographical system (proportional development). Extremal processes and phenomena lead to a disturbance of equilibrium. As a result, complex and proportional development becomes unreal.
• The principle of conservancy.
      According to this principle, society creates for itself optimal systems for the use of natural resources and the steady improvement of environmental conditions.
• The principle of permanent improvement of social welfare. Under this principle, human needs, rights, interests and requirements are at the center of socio-geographical complexes. All scientific programs must be aimed at the observance and improvement of these conditions.
• The principle of historical approach.
      According to this principle, all extremal phenomena and processes are dynamically considered to reveal the reasons of their creation, sequence and their phases of development.
• The principle of predicting.
      This principle helps determine a trajectory of development and future conditions for propagating extremeness within a territory. The most frequently used approaches include linear and non-linear predicting, estimation by experts, various methods of analogy and modeling, and numerical scoring.
• The principle of mapping of extremal-geographical processes and phenomena.
      Extremal phenomena have spatial and temporal distributions, so it is possible for one to show them on a map.
      The concept of extremeness can reflect a state whose qualitative characteristics are caused by natural and/or anthropogenic reasons. This concept should concern not only the natural indices of a state of environment influential over human activity, but also the indices of social system functionality. Standard indices and deviations from them can be expressed in partial indices - demographic (morbidity, birth and death rates, etc.), environmental (climatic or hydrological), and also in economic and social indices (index of sustainable economic welfare, or human development index). However, quantitative indices such as the amount of financial support necessary for the protection of environmental and social systems are more convenient for determining extremal conditions.
      To reveal extremal regions in specific territories (whether a group of countries, a single state, or regions within a state), one can use a variety of methods and methodological approaches. Common methods of investigating extremal-geographical processes and phenomena have included a systematic approach, structural analysis and synthesis, socio-geographical modeling, statistical method, or generalization, to name but a few.
      Among methods of extremeness-level evaluation in specific regions, one can mark off the method of statistical data systematization with the subsequent co-ordination of empirical data and territorial units, as well as the method of numerical score.
      All components of various extremal systems (crime, ecological, technogenous and social catastrophes) are distinguished by their interconnection and functionality as an integrated destructive phenomenon, or an "anti-system." This is why, considering their solitary influence on regional development, one cannot effectively reconstruct the actual state of said territories. In this case, administrative solutions and methods employed for settling a crisis will be ineffective. Extremal phenomena should be considered within the context of their interrelationships.
      Mapping can reveal such an integrated system of distribution of extreme-geographical processes and phenomena on a territory. In evaluating the extremal aspects of the territory development for specific regions within Ukraine, a combined mapping model has been created that shows the degree of manifestation and the interrelationship of separate extremal components (Fig. 1).
      The circular charts on the map illustrate the crime rate, the number of ecological and technogenous accidents, and social stress. The method of quantitative background shows the population structure in selected regions.
      To create these circular charts, the indices for their components were ranked according to a numerical score. For evaluating the crime rate in these respective regions, an index of the number of reported crimes in a particular jurusdiction was used.
      In evaluating social stress, the most comprehensive index is a measure of the number of people taking part in strikes and public disorder. It is this index that was taken as the basis for creating the attached map. Also, it is expedient to use the following indices: the rates of unemployment and underemployment; the part poor people play in society; the circumstance of broken families; the number of shelters for orphans, invalids and the homeless; and the rate of divorce as a percentage of the total number of marriages.
      The indices of ecological accidents in Ukraine include the amount of pollutant emissions into the atmosphere, and the discharge of pollutants into natural surface water basins. It is also expedient to use the data on the level of pollution of both land resources and underground aquifers. A combination of these indices will make the description of the ecological situation more comprehensive and reliable.
      Technogenous accidents have been estimated by noting the frequency of environmental pollution due to those accidents. It is this index that measures the degree of influence of the technosphere on both nature and society.
      These results suggest the dominance of extremal processes and phenomena in densely populated and highly industrialized areas. The greatest extremal potential in Ukraine is in its eastern regions - Donecjk, Dnipropetrovsjk, Kharkiv, Lugansjk, and Zaporizhzhja. Within the structure of their potential, this is due to ecological accidents, the crime rate, and assorted social crises. This is further ascribed to a higher level of urbanization and industrial development, the dominance of heavy and mineral industries, and insufficient development of industrial and social infrastructures.
      In the aforementioned regions, technogenous accidents of medium intensity in industry and transport are observed as well. However, the consequences of these accidents are insignificant. This rate is due to the creation of an effective system of cleaning and recycling, the use of novel technologies, and a high level of trained personnel throughout this territory.
      The regions of medium development - Odessa, Ljviv, Poltava, Ivano-Frankivsjk, and the Autonomous Republic of the Crimea - have a lower degree of propagation and distribution of extremal processes and phenomena. These regions are also characterized by large indices of crime and social stress. However, the ecological pollution of this territory has decreased. Therewith, in all regions (except for the Crimea) a higher level of environmental technogenous pollution exists due to accidents.
      These regions have rather low indices of industrial modernization. This is why the number of unexpected accidents and their consequences are considerably higher. Insufficient financial support for preventive measures in the industrial sector, plus a low level of infrastructure services influence the growth of environmental pollution due to accidents.
      Low indices of extremal processes and phenomena are characteristic of the regions where agriculture predominates, and where both urbanization levels and population density is low, such as in Ternopilj, Vinnycja, Chernighiv, and Zhytomyr. Processing industries are reasonably well developed in these regions. Technogenous accidents predominate within the structure of extremal potential. The amount of social stress and a significant crime rate are minimal. When compared to the more highly developed regions, the ecological situation approaches the standard mean.
     The Ukraine's primary metropolitan region requires a separate explanation. The Kyiv region is noted for a rather low level of extremeness. The high crime rate and severe pollution levels seem an almost permanent part of this social environment. Improving living conditions and providing more material possessions and nonmaterial benefits will help achieve a lower level of societal stress.
      Extremal indices can be compared with the help of mapping models. This process allows one to draw certain conclusions about the features of function and the development of regions. The efforts of government administration should be directed to overcome negative tendencies in developing these aforementioned territories, taking into account the structure and the relationship between extremal components.

Conclusions
This recommended approach to evaluate the extremal potential in various geographic regions can be used not only in the Ukraine, but elsewhere in the world as well. The propagation and distribution of extreme-geographical processes and phenomena obey similar objective laws of development under diverse economic, social and political conditions; they can differ only in intensity and proportionality. Therefore, the above-described methods for evaluating the effects of instability of society, notably in view of national features, can well be used for investigating other territories.

About the Authors:
Stepan I. Ishchuk is professor of economical and social geography at National Kyiv Taras Shevchenko University, Kyiv (Kiev), Ukraine. Alexander Gladkey is a post-graduate master at this same institution, and can be reached by E-mail at: [email protected]

Back