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THE
VIEW FROM HERE
Playing with Models
My youngest nephew knows quite a lot about models.
Not too long ago I was playing “cars” with
five-year-old Hugo. “This,” he informed me, “is the
Volvo car.” The car he held in his hand was red plastic.
It was indeed a sedan, like his family’s car, but the
“real” one sitting in the driveway outside was gold
and was a station wagon with enough seats to haul him and
his three siblings. Those inconsistencies clearly didn’t
matter to him; the “model” had enough characteristics
of the real thing for his purposes. And, while I’m not
sure he could articulate this subtle idea now, I like to
think that Hugo understands that models are “like” the
real thing, but not exactly.
Huck Finn, traveling with Tom Sawyer in a balloon
over the
Midwest
in Twain’s Tom Sawyer Abroad didn’t make that
distinction.
“
Indiana
PINK? Why, what a lie!”
“It ain’t no lie; I’ve seen it on the map,
and it’s pink.”
You never see a person so aggravated and disgusted.
He says: “Well, if I was such a numbskull as you, Huck
Finn, I would jump over. Seen it on the map! Huck Finn,
did you reckon the States was the same color out-of-doors
as they are on the map?”
“Tom Sawyer, what’s a map for? Ain’t it to
learn you facts?”
Hugo and his siblings are also getting a feel for
predictive modeling. One of their favorite games is to try
to guess what we are going to do when they visit my house.
One of our shared interests is cooking, so there are
usually a number of raw ingredients, bowls, and measuring
cups on the kitchen table when they visit. The kids like
to try to guess, based on the ingredients and pots and
pans, what we will make. Their experience (about five
years for the older two) has enabled them to become better
at guessing.
My oldest niece is a reader. With all sorts of
stories behind her, she’s a whiz at predicting what will
happen in the story. More than once, at intermission at a
musical, she’s let me know what’s going to happen in
the second act. She’ll tease out the unexpected plot
twist ahead based on evidence and experience.
I’m pretty sure my nieces and nephews are not
familiar with stochastic models. Stochastic models are
used to explore phenomena with a random variable, or
patterns resulting from random effects. In the geospatial
arena the big question when exploring a pattern is: did it
happen naturally (just by chance) or is some other factor
causing it? That sort of modeling is key when trying to
link health effects to chemical contamination or other
factors. The first step to understanding stochastic models
may be as simple as trying to identify the natural and
man-made features when walking in the woods. The kids know
that some trails are made naturally, by animals, and that
others, especially the paved bike paths, are made by man.
Models and modeling are part of our everyday lives,
though perhaps we don’t use that term to describe the
physical (or virtual) objects with which we interact, or
the processes we use. We are quick to blame the weatherman
when it rains on our parade but sometimes forget that the
conclusions are simply the meteorologist’s best
interpretation of a model. And, sometimes we just forget
that models are like the real world, but not exactly.
Adena Schutzberg, Editor
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