| From the Publisher
By Roland Mangold Two Strikes and . . . Your Out?
I don't think so - at least I hope not. Even in baseball you get three shots to hit a home run and this is a damn sight more important than a game.
By now, most of you have heard about the loss of EarthWatch's one-meter resolution remote sensing satellite. QuickBird 1 took off at 2 a.m., November 20, 2000 from Plesetsk, Russia on board a Russian Kosmos-3M booster rocket headed for an orbit 375 miles above Earth. Ground controllers lost contact with the spacecraft when it shut down prematurely, deploying the satellite into an orbit outside the range of communications. EarthWatch chose the Russian launch because it was supposedly a reliable and less-expensive option. What I can't understand is why they chose such an ungodly hour to perform this delicate task - I can barely navigate from my bed to the bathroom at that time of night.
There seems to be some controversy as it relates to responsibility for the failure. Although the $60 million satellite was fully insured, payment in such cases can depend on whether the rocket or satellite failed. Early reports indicated that the Russian rocket failed to deliver the satellite to its intended orbit. But the Russians later insisted that the launch from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, located in the far northern reaches of Siberia, was carried out correctly, suggesting that the failure was with the satellite. "All we know is that it didn't make its orbit, which means it's lost," said Chuck Herring, spokesman for EarthWatch.
This was "Strike Two" for EarthWatch. The company's first entry into the high-resolution satellite business also failed when the EarlyBird 3-meter resolution satellite malfunctioned in 1997. QuickBird I was built by Ball Aerospace and EarthWatch is planning to launch another Ball built satellite, QuickBird II, next summer.
Although often it is difficult to see past one's own pain and loss, this unfortunate event impacts not just those closest to EarthWatch but an entire industry. And, as this is still an industry in its infancy there is potential for far reaching implications throughout society.
The real issue which faces EarthWatch, at this time, is that someone will fill the void that exists as a result of there being just one vendor of high resolution satellite imagery. Another company will come along and plant their seed in the fertile ground left by the death of QuickBird. There will be more than one dominant player in this field, and they will realize the opportunities that exist today and the dramatic expansion expected in the foreseeable future. But, who will be the players to reap these rewards?
Another implication of this incident is that confidence in this industry by an already skittish investment community could have been dealt a fatal blow. EarthWatch needs investors to dig deeper to allow them to finish production and successfully launch the second of the QuickBird satellites. However, this dilemma is compounded by the fact that Lockheed Martin and Raytheon are both reevaluating their investments in Space Imaging and rumor on the street has it that they are looking to sell their respective stakes in the only high-resolution satellite company. Space Imaging is unwilling to divulge revenue figures. But, I have heard numbers like $20 million a month in sales being whispered around the industry which belies concerns that a market exists for high resolution imagery.
At this time, Space Imaging has a lock on the one-meter remote sensing business. However, this industry desperately needs additional sources of Earth imagery. Not only does the market need competition, but it is clear that one satellite cannot meet the demand for imagery. Also, in order for the industry to achieve its true potential, it is vitally important for an abundance of imagery to be available to seed the marketplace and stimulate demand within the potential applications. EarthWatch was supposed to help meet that need, but there are others waiting in the wings.
On deck in the batter's circle is the former West Indian Space Corp., recently reincorporated in the Netherlands Antilles as ImageSat International Inc.. They are planning to launch an Israeli 1.8 meter resolution satellite on a Russian Start 1 rocket on December 8, 2000. Core Software, makers of TerraSoar, software for distributing geospatial data sets, and ImageNet, an on-line geospatial visual indexing and distribution service, are also the exclusive North American distributors for ImageSat.
Orbimage is another contender for the high resolution imagery market. But, with the financial woes of its parent Orbital Science, one would speculate as to the chances of Orbimage's ability to carry out its business plan.
I can speak to the potential market size of the Earth imaging business - $1 billion, $3 billion, $6 billion or whatever. But that is not the issue at this critical juncture in the Earth imaging industry. The issue is who are going to be the major players in this inexplicably vital industry - this industry which has great economic potential and can impact virtually every walk of life? It is said, "that which does not kill you makes you stronger." I am confident that given another "crack at bat" EarthWatch can pull itself out of this slump and emerge as a dominant player in the Earth imaging game. Until next time . .
Cheers! 
Roland Mangold
Publisher, Earth Observation Magazine
E-mail: [email protected]
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