| CAD Trends Foreshadow Future for GeoTechnologies
The warning for GeoTechnology vendors at all levels is clear: reinvent yourself to keep pace with a changing market or risk extinction
By J.D. Wilson The recent announcement by Intergraph Corp. that it will abandon its long-time commitment to Bentley Systems' MicroStation and pursue a CAD-independent strategy closely aligned with Microsoft has sent shudders through the CAD, GIS and GeoTechnology industries.
Intergraph is the market leader in CAD-based GIS applications, for utilities, public works and civil engineering. Its bold move has left users and industry experts alike puzzled at the future of the technology.
"Our vision is to integrate our technology with office applications so people can use high-end applications on the desktop," explained Michael Baker, senior marketing analyst for Intergraph's Mapping Sciences division.
For its part, Bentley Systems has responded as a youthful sibling, finally out of his big brother's shadow and coming of age on his own. "It's an interesting and exciting time for us," declared Yoav Etal, vice president of product marketing for Bentley. "Many people are already using our tools and we think a lot of others will decide to develop on our product when they see what we are doing."
Leveraging the experience and large base of installed systems it gained in the Intergraph camp, Bentley is now moving quickly to flesh out its product line to compete head-to-head in this rapidly changing market. The Giants Stumble
But while Intergraph's announcement may appear radical, especially for a successful market leader, it portends many such major shifts in the GeoTechnologies markets.
Actually, Intergraph has not be as successful in recent years as market share figures might have suggested. As one of the oldest CAD developers, Intergraph built its empire on the same business model followed by most of the successful first-generation computer companies.
It provided full-service proprietary systems, including hardware, software, service and everything else that went with the package. Once you chose their products, you were locked into their systems. Lucrative leases and renewable service agreements kept revenues high.
But like IBM, Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC) and a host of other companies-many of which no longer exist-Intergraph has seen the writing on the wall. The marketplace will no longer tolerate isolated, proprietary systems.
In fact, Intergraph first courted Bentley Systems several years ago as a way to build a more open system as customers shifted from mainframe systems to workstations. MicroStation, which runs on more than 13 workstation and PC platforms, gave Intergraph a fast-track entry into the workstation market.
Now the market is shifting again and the focal point is enterprise integration. Intergraph is betting it can transform itself from the IBM-style business model into the Microsoft of graphics systems. Integrated Systems vs. Open Systems
Ironically, Intergraph's alignment with Microsoft may actually signal a step away from the open systems paradigm. Microsoft has been criticized long and loud for unfairly using its market strength to dictate de facto standards that hamper competition.
In contrast, Bentley's strategy is to align with as many small, innovative companies as possible in which mutually-beneficial co-existence can form.
"This is our traditional way of developing the market," Etal explained. "We look for an opportunity to partner with vertical providers to create as many different solutions as possible. This gives our users integration with a lot more choice."
Currently Bentley's "Synergy" program has resulted in 45 GIS-related ventures with U.S. companies and more than 200 ventures worldwide. "We provide others an opportunity to develop on our product," Etal added. "With this model, we think everyone benefits, especially our customers."
The first fruits of the program is the immanent release of MicroStation Geographics, a new product to add GIS functionality to MicroStation's robust drafting and design capabilities. "This product blends together the tools used for engineering and planning functions," Etal said.
Autodesk, which wrote the book on desktop CAD with its AutoCAD group of products, has used a similar strategy to sustain its success while other CAD providers have failed. "You've got to have the developer participation," explained Joe Nicholson, director of GIS marketing for Autodesk. Nicholson credits the widespread development of third-party applications with much of AutoCAD's success.
"Our strategy has been to provide a solid, accessible base system, provide the tools to make it a developer platform and then provide the training and support mechanism to help users succeed," he said.
Like Bentley, Autodesk is introducing more sophisticated mapping tools, which add GIS-type capabilities, including full topology and polygon manipulation to its CAD functions. "We hope users will integrate our products further down the work flow," Nicholson said. Integration as Market Force
The dramatic changes in the CAD market will impact the mapping systems industry in profound ways by the end of the century. And, as Intergraph's announcement shows, the trend goes beyond basic desktop CAD applications. It encompasses all levels of the GeoTechnologies industries, from the most basic systems to the most sophisticated.
"The customer has taken over the industry," Nicholson declared. "The users-not the vendors-are calling the shots now."
Nicholson pointed out that a revolution occurred in the late '80s and early '90s. While developers were creating larger, more powerful systems with more and more sophisticated functions, users stopped buying.
"Essentially, users told the vendor community that GIS was not the center of the universe, their businesses or agencies were," Nicholson said. "A lot of companies went out of business, and I don't think we're done with it yet."
This industry shake-out has resulted in a profound shift in the industry from a technology-centered to a user need-centered paradigm.
Regardless of the level of sophistication, Nicholson agrees that the move toward an user-centric industry is driving systems convergence-both among GeoTechnologies and with other information systems-at a breakneck pace.
This convergence is evident in three key areas: Convergence on the Desktop
Like all computing applications, the GeoTechnologies are moving toward the desktop. Processing power has increased exponentially in the last few years and the distinction between personal computers (PCs) and high-end graphics workstations continues to blur.
The emergence of Microsoft's graphical operating systems, particularly Windows NT, has helped to unify PCs and workstations in a more integrated environment. Consequently, the technological foundation is in place to put accessible geographic data on every desk in an organization.
"In five years, the mystery of geospatial data will have worn off," explained Bill Folchi, vice president for Space Imaging Systems. "It used to be you needed a Ph.D. to really understand and use geodata. But that is already changing."
He explained that easier user interfaces and a growing awareness of what geospatial data is and how it works, will shift the lion's share of geodata process away from specialized experts to end users. Converging with Geodata Technologies
Folchi believes the trend toward end-user systems is being helped along by the increasing availability and decreasing costs of geospatial data. This, and users' insatiable hunger for information, has driven vendors to incorporate more and more data capability into their systems.
Space Imaging, for example, is preparing to launch its one-meter-per-pixel imaging satellite, which will provide high-detail, low-cost satellite images for mass markets.
"The availability of inexpensive land data is probably the most compelling change in the industry today," declared Ed Odenwalder, president of Inform Inc. in Englewood, Colorado. "With the new remote sensing products coming out, vector land bases could be completely obsolete in just a few years."
Instead, Odenwalder predicts, users will store data in a hybrid environment, in which only that data which must be vecotrized for analysis purposes will be converted. Everything else will be stored in the most economical form, as raster images.
"The confluence of digital raster imagery with Global Positioning Systems (GPS) give you the ability to register a detailed picture of the world to geodetic position," explained Space Imaging's Folchi. "Why vectorize, when you have such rich data with greater accuracy than traditional vector land bases?"
The technology is not quite there yet, he concedes. CD-ROM speed probably needs to double twice more, and developers will need to introduce hybrid raster-vector analysis tools.
But the de-mystification of geospatial data is underway. "Users' real assets are their data," Odenwalder added. "GIS is only a tool for using that data productively." Convergence into Total System Solutions
Finally, users are looking for solutions to business problems, not technology for its own sake. Consequently, instead of large AM/FM/GIS system installed on their own potential merits, as in the '80s, these systems are being considered in light of a larger information management issues.
While this convergence of GeoTechnology with mainstream is promising and beneficial for users, it bodes caution for technology vendors.
Take for example the experience of the first-generation CAD system developers of the 1970s. Most of these companies-one-time heavy weights like Autotrol, ComputerVision, Bendix, and Applicon-no longer exist.
Space Imaging's Folchi remembers first had what happened in those early days. He explained that CAD companies first developed specialized applications for manufacturing design, electronic engineering and so on. Most of these applications merged into larger computer integrated manufacturing (CIM) environments, where design and drafting were just steps in a larger process.
"People don't buy applications, they buy solutions. Applications ultimately get merged into larger systems," Folchi explained.
"Unfortunately, none of these early pioneers managed the transition very well," Folchi added. "There was no precedent and they didn't see what was happening until it was too late."
Folchi sees the same trend happening in the GIS markets now. "The application inevitably merges into the process," he said.
Odenwalder agrees. "We're seeing more and more utilities and communications companies looking at their AM/FM/GIS systems in the context of larger processes. They're combining them with reengineering programs and merging them with Work Management Systems (WMS)." he said. "In these cases, AM/FM/GIS plays a subordinate role." Convergence With a Vengeance
The warning for GeoTechnology vendors at all levels is clear: reinvent yourself to keep pace with a changing market or risk extinction, regardless of your size and market share today.
Users expectations are rapidly changing. Ease of use, data flexibility and enterprise integration will be the primary factors for system selection decision.
Advanced functionality, which developers have created at tremendous cost, may no longer be a compelling advantage, by itself. Users gladly will sacrifice functionality for a more integrated approach.
At least two companies, Intergraph and Bentley systems have embarked on very different approaches to reinvent themselves for the next generation of geospatial data systems. One is following the Microsoft model of the vertically-integrated, pseudo-open market-leader. The other is exploring the more entrepreneurial approach of associative relationships and open systems.
Whether either one will succeed in the long run will depend on how the market accepts and embraces the tools they offer. And as recent history has taught, the response of the marketplace is never predictable. About the Author:
J.D. Wilson is a freelance writer in Denver, Colo., specializing in the GeoTechnologies. He may be reached at 303-751-7636 (phone) or 303-322-3702 (fax). Back |
