INDUSTRY INSIDER
Reality Check
By Carl Reed

The geospatial industry, including GIS, is in the midst of major change. This column is the first in a series discussing the forces shaping change in the geospatial industry and what it means for the future of the industry. The goal of this series is to be both informative as well as thought provoking. Even if one disagrees with my premises or conclusions, my goal for writing these columns has been achieved.
     Before starting, however, there is a short quiz. What technology had its humble beginnings 30 years ago?

A. Color TV
B. The Internet
C. Interactive (as opposed to batch) computing
D. Cellular telephones
E. Computer based GIS

If you answered "B," you are correct. The Internet had its beginnings as ARPANET in 1969. Funded by the Advanced Research Project Agency of the DoD, it actually crashed during its first live test in October of that year. The goal of ARPANET was to develop a nationwide ring of computers and communications designed to keep functioning even if a nuclear attack took out part of the network. The ARPANET Project actually began in 1958, but it was many years before a user on one computer could log into another computer.
     Now for the next question. In what year did the first widely available web browser make its debut?

A. 1987
B. 1990
C. 1993
D. 1995

In 1993, the National Center for Super Computer Operations released Mosaic. Mosaic was pretty much available as freeware. Netscape followed as a commercial successor to Mosaic in 1994, and Microsoft released Explorer in 1995.
     The reason for these questions is simple. We need a reality check. We need to step back and consider the changes that have occurred, and the changes that will occur. I think we all forget how young the Internet really is. And yet the changes the Internet has already created in information technology, software, services, and even to some extent, society, are phenomenal. Four years ago, there was no amazon.com; six years ago Java was just an idea; HTML appeared in the 1990/1991 time frame. In 1993, there were just 130 web servers. Today, there are over 2.5 million. In 1993, there was basically zero dollars in e-business. In 1999, e-business revenues will exceed $100 billion. This figure does not even include retail revenues! Total e-business, including retail, is projected to exceed $1.3 trillion by 2003 - and could be significantly higher if key legislation passes and a number of antiquated laws are removed.
     The use and acceptance of the Internet has spread more quickly than any other technology in history. Its impact will be on par with those caused by the telephone, the internal combustion engine, and mass communications (radio, television, and movies). And yet, other than headline news, most of us remain largely unaware of the changes the Internet is bringing about in our financial, retail, communications, and other industries. Business processes are being re-modeled, whole new market models and sectors are appearing. Many existing businesses, or parts of businesses, will disappear. Why is this happening? One indicator: A recent study by the Giga Information Group suggests that the cost savings globally through the use of e-commerce will rise from $17 billion in 1998 to $1.25 trillion in 2002. A very simple example of these savings is in the financial industry. It costs only a penny to process a Net-based transaction, compared with $1.07 for a branch and 27 cents for an ATM.
     The same can be said of the geospatial industry. As Sherlock Holmes liked to say, "The game is afoot." The Internet game will radically change the way we access, utilize, and pay for geospatial technology and services. The Internet is creating Geoffrey Moore's tornado in many industries. The "tornado" is the name Moore gives to the phase in which market dynamics create hypergrowth in an industry and a (potential) new gorilla emerges to become the market leader. The geospatial industry may be entering this phase. New geospatial software and service companies are emerging that better fit the requirements of the Internet economy. Other companies and organizations are changing their business and services practices to best meet rapidly changing buyer and user demand. Companies that do not change their business model to meet the demands of the new Internet-based economy face hard times and possible extinction.
     Consider this. What GIS based Internet technology is the most heavily accessed in the world today? I would argue that it is the Mapquest site. According to a recent presentation by Mapquest, their site is currently generating an average of more than 4,000,000 maps per day, or just under 2,800 per minute. Some may take exception to the statement that this is GIS technology, or that some other vendors' software at multiple sites is generating more maps. These can be argued, but in arguing the real point is being missed.
     There is a new market economy, a new definition of value added, appearing in the geospatial technologies business. It will redefine the geospatial industry and finally allow it to realize its true potential. There is a rapidly emerging trend in the Internet world-the ASP, or application service provider. ASPs allow the user to subscribe with a provider to obtain on-line access to the desired software. The availability and use of ASPs in the geospatial industries is quietly but steadily growing. The next column explores the potential short and medium range impacts that ASPs will have on the geospatial industry. Several examples will be described, with thoughts provided on where the new geospatial ASPs will appear. Other columns will explore a variety of topics, including societal impacts and technology considerations and trends, all from the perspective that our industry is changing and that geospatial data and technology usage, while perhaps hidden, will become ubiquitous.

Background:
Dr. Carl Reed
Director of Information Technology
Image Matters
Tel: 256-882-9597
E-mail: [email protected] Dr. Carl Reed is currently an independent consultant specializing in working with both the commercial and government sectors to bring geospatial knowledge into business processes. Dr. Reed is also representing Intergraph as Director of GeoSpatial Business Development. Previously, he was the vice president of geospatial marketing at Intergraph Corporation. Reed joined Intergraph in April 1998, after a long tenure at Genasys II, where he most recently served as chief technology officer for Genasys II worldwide. From 1989 to 1996, Reed was president of the Genasys U.S. operation. Prior to that, he was system architect for the team that designed and developed the Genasys product suite. Reed has been an active member of the OpenGIS Consortium since 1994. Before his tenure at Genasys, Reed worked at Autometric for six years as GIS division manager, developing a variety of systems for the civilian branches of the U.S. federal government as well as for the military. Reed worked on such programs as Terrain Analysis Work Station, the cruise missile program, Computer Assisted Photo Interpretation Research, and the Mark 90 proposal effort (the first NIMA modernization program). Prior to his work at Autometric, Reed worked for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, developing an interactive GIS for environmental mitigation. The result of this work was a system called the Map Overlay and Statistical System (MOSS). This was the world's first full-function, interactive vector-based GIS to run on a mini computer. At one time, MOSS was used by dozens of federal agencies. Reed received his PhD in Geography, specializing in GIS technology, from the State University of New York at Buffalo in 1978. Since beginning graduate school in 1972, Reed has published dozens of professional papers, delivered hundreds of seminars, and spoken on numerous conference panels. In recognition of his contribution to the GIS industry, in 1996, Reed was voted by his peers as one of the top ten most influential people in GIS.

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